Stupid Numbers or Growth?

ወደ ገደለው ከመግባቴ በፊት ይችን እውነተኛ ታሪክ ልንደርደርባት።

በዛሬይቱ ኢትዮጵያ የንግድ አሰላለፍ – ወተት ከገበሬ ጀምሮ ተጠቃሚው ጋር እስኪደርስ ልክ ጎል እንደምትገባ እንደፕሪሜር ሊግ ኳስ ብዙ አማካኞች፣ ተከላካዮችና በረኛ ማለፍ አለበት። አንድ ገበሬ ላም አልቦ ለሰፈሩ ነጋዴ የሸጣል፤ ያ ነጋዴ ከሱ ከፍ ለሚል ነጋዴ ይሸጣል፤ ያም ነጋዴ (ላሳጥረውና) ለመጨረሻው ነጋዴ ይሸጣል፤ የመጨረሻው ነጋዴ በመጨረሻም ለተጠቃሚ። በሀገራችን የንግድ ደንብ መሰረት ወተት ከአንዱ እጅ ወደ ሌላው ሲያልፍ ውሃ ተጨምሮበት ነው። እናም አንድ ቀን ሁሉም በየእርከኑ ያሉ ነጋዴዎች በራሳቸው ግምት “የማይታወቅ ያክል” ትንሽ ትንሽ ውሃ እየጨመሩ የመጨረሻው ነጋዴ ጋር በብዙ ውሆች የታጀበ ወተት ይደርሰዋል። እሱም እንደለመደው ውሃ ሲጨምርበት ወተቱ ከወተትነት ወደ ውሃነት ይቀየራል። በዚያም “እንዴት ውሃ እንደጨመሩ ለኔ አይነግሩኝም?” በማለት በጣም ይናደድና ላስረከበው ነጋዴ ደውሎ “እንዴት ነው ጎበዝ – እየተነጋገርን እንጂ” አለው አሉ።

If somebody’s job is measure the amount of milk produced in that area, where should he be to know the true milk production? Because definitely “milk produced” and “milk consumed” are not the same. If the statistician measures milk consumed – the measured figures will not truly tell milk production. I think our national figures are deeply affected by such bad trade culture.

Numbers get even more stupid when one Kebele official reports that Kebele’sagricultural production to a woreda statistics – then to zone statistics – then to Regional statistics all the way to National numbers. Think of what would happen when every official adds some (“የማይታወቅ ያክል”) number to the agricultural production figure when they report to the next higher official. Think of how big a difference that may exist between the true per-hectare production the farmer harvests (ምርታማነት – እነሱ እንደሚሉት) and the per-hectare production Ethiopia nationally reports!

Again – I think – our national figures are deeply affected by such bad reporting culture.

The above two simple examples demonstrate how National numbers can grow – with no increase (or even decrease) in actual production. Sometimes – when I observe our double digit macroeconomic growth – I think of how much of it is GROWTH and how much of it is STUPID NUMBER.

Now – According to the national numbers – Ethiopia is growing at a double digit rate. However, looking in to the economic life of most Ethiopians – it is characterized by stagnant income with ever increasing prices. Do you guys think – part of the reason is because of STUPID NUMBERS?

ምናልባት መንግስት አገሪቷ በአስራ ምናምን ፐርሰንት እያደገች ነው እያለ፤ ህዝቦቿ አይ ኑሮውን አልቻልነውም ብለው አገር አንደሌለው በማንም የመካከመኛው ምስራቅ እንስሳ እንደ አባብ አናት አናታቸውን የሚቀጠቄጡበት ምክኒያቱ ይሄ ይሆን?

P.S. – I see the construction sector in a different eye. I think that is the area where Ethiopia’s numbers are truly growing.

*** Girma Derib, November 19, 2013